znow record ciepla z 1947 roku. Osiagnelismy dzis 36.1C. Ludzie zaczynaja narzekac. Szczegolnie ci bez klimatyzacji. Tak los jakos zarzadzil, ze ja z Ryskiem nalezymy tez do tej kategorii bez klimatyzacji. Nie jest latwo. Okna pootwierane + wiatraczek + na golasa. Rzeczywiscie pozbycie sie sauny bylo dobra dezycja. W taki skwar to tak jak w saunie. Kazdy por na skorze staje sie goracym gejzerem.
Putin dokonal prowokacji na Krymie i teraz oskarza Ukraine i ja zastrasza. Mam nadzieje, ze bracia Ukraincy nie dadza sie tak latwo zastraszyc temu tyranowi. Albo rzuci ich na kolana jak Turkow. Rusko-Tureckie zagrozenie dla Ukrainy i Polski nie zwiastuje nic dobrego. Ciekawe czy efektem tej przyjazni bedzie oddanie przez Putina Krymu dla Turcji? Zobaczymy, poczekamy.
Polska musi rozwazyc symultaniczny atak na Krym z poludnia i okupowany przez Rosje Krolewiec na polnocy. Odzyskanie Krolewca i Krymu (obydwa lezace w polskiej strefie wplywow) odbuduje polska mocarstwowosc. Nie zapominajmy, ze po przegranej wojnie Rosja sie rospadnie na szereg niezaleznych panstwewek i Turcja (nasz odwieczny wrog) przejmie jej role. George Friedman ("The next 100 years") przewiduje wojne Polsko-Turecka w 2050 roku.
But Poland will feel embittered in spite of its victory. Its territory will have been directly invaded by Germany and Turkey, its allies occupied. Its casualties will be in the tens of thousands, the result of civilian battle casualties from ground combat - house-to-house fighting in which armored infantrymen are safer than civilians. Poland's infrastructure will have been shattered and, along with it, the nation's economy. Though Poland will be able to tilt the region's economic table in its favor, exploiting its conquests to quickly rebuild its economy, the victory will still be a painful one.
To the west, Poland's traditional enemy, Germany, will be weakened, subordinate, and sullen, while the Turks, beaten for the moment, will retain their influence a few hundred miles south in the Balkans and in southern Russia. The Poles will have taken the port of Rijeka and maintain bases in western Greece to prevent Turkish aggression at the entrance to the Adriatic.
But the Turks will be still there, and Europeans have long memories. Perhaps most stinging, Poland will be included among nations banned from the military use of space. The United States will make no exception to that. In fact, the United States will be most uneasy about Poland after the war. Poland will have regained the empire it had in the seventeenth century, and added to it.
Poland will create a confederated system of governance for its former allies and will directly rule Belarus. It will be economically weak and badly hurt by the war, but it will have the territory and time to recover.
The defeat of France and Germany by Poland will decisively shift power in Europe to the east. In a sense, the eclipse of Atlantic Europe that began in 1945 will complete itself in the 2050s. The United States won't relish the long-term implications of a vigorous, self-confident Poland dominating Europe. It therefore will encourage its closest ally, Britain, which will have thrown its weight decisively into the war, to increase its own economic and political influence on the continent. With Western Europe in demographic and economic shambles, and fearing Polish power, England will willingly organize a bloc oddly resembling the twentieth-century NATO, whose task it will be to rehabilitate Western Europe and block Polish movement westward from Germany, Austria, or Italy. The United States won't join, but it will encourage the formation of this alliance.
Most interestingly, the Americans will move to improve their relations with the Turks. Given the old British adage that nations have no permanent friends and no permanent enemies but only permanent interests, the American interest will be to support the weaker power against the stronger, in order to maintain the balance of power. Turkey, understanding the long-term potential power of Poland, will happily accept closer ties with Washington as a guarantee of its long-term survival.
Needles to say, the Poles will feel utterly betrayed by the Americans. But the Americans will be learning. Rushing into battle may satisfy some urge, but managing the situation so that battles either won't occur or will be fought by others is much better solution. In supporting Britain and Turkey, the United States will move to create a European balance of power matching the one in Asia. No other country will represent a coherent threat to the United States and, so long as it controls space, the United States will easily be able to deal with any other issues that rise to a level requiring its attention (George Friedman, "The next 100 years. A forecast for the 21st century", ANCHOR BOOKS, New York 2009).
03:03 Hrs. Budzi mnie siusiu (slomkowe + puszyste).